Introduction to Volcanic Hazards Quantification

Introduction to Volcanic Hazards Quantification describes the fundamentals of volcanic hazard quantification, which forecasts the potential intensity of volcanic activity in the future. The book closely examines the modelling and forecasting techniques that make up Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA). The book is organized in three parts. First, the authors introduce the fundamentals of modelling for different eruptive and non-eruptive phenomena that characterize volcanic activity. This includes volcanic ballistics and tephra fallout, volcanic gas dispersal, pyroclastic density currents, lava flows and lava domes, lahar and debris flows, and volcanic tsunamis. In the second part, the authors examine existing statistical tools for forecasting volcanic activity and managing uncertainties, ranging from methods adopted for both short-term forecasts and long-term models. Finally, several case studies are presented, with examples in the area of Naples, which is threatened by three active volcanoes (Mt. Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei and Ischia), Mt Etna in Sicily, and volcanic islands such as Ischia and Vulcano in the Aeolian Islands. This book provides a much-needed reference on volcanic hazard quantification for those working to forecast volcanic activity as well as manage emergency preparedness.