Israel und das Szenario eines Präventivschlags gegen den Iran

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Abstract From Israel’s perspective, Iranian nuclear weapons would pose a threat to its existence, and Jerusalem has repeatedly warned that it will launch a preventive strike against Tehran’s nuclear programme. According to Israel’s thinking, such action would halt the possible escalation of the threat such a programme represents. Even though Iran has already crossed the threshold at which Israel has stated it would feel compelled to attack, it has not yet done so. Which factors would most likely lead to a preventive attack by Israel? This study uses constructivist, liberal and neorealist theories to infer the conditions that would result in Israel launching a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Various attack scenarios are discussed and analysed with regard to the probability of their success, and the book suggests what would have to happen for Israel to decide to launch a preventive strike on Iran.