Long-term Energy Demand in the German Residential Sector

This thesis deals with the topic of how technological knowledge declines over time and the resulting limitations of techno-economic energy demand models in anticipating future demand for energy in the long-term. Since this is a principle limitation of ex ante analyses, this deficiency has been discussed for some time, but so far no methodological solution has been developed. The study is the first to develop a concept that draws on a broad methodological basis from different scientific disciplines (energy modelling and innovation economics) to address this limitation. Applying the concept developed to a practical question – energy scenarios for the German household sector until 2050 – shows that integrating the decline in technological knowledge into answering it leads to interesting new insights.